Sinwar’s Killing: Will It End the War?

Netanyahu’s Messianic War and the Stakes for Israel’s Future

Yahya Sinwar’s killing is undoubtedly a major tactical victory for Netanyahu and provides a significant political boost. With Sinwar killed, Netanyahu has a powerful narrative to present in Israel—having eliminated the mastermind behind the October 7 attacks, significantly weakened Hamas, and dealt major blows to Hezbollah, including the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. In theory, this should present an opportunity to end the war under a “victorious” banner.

However, Netanyahu's broader approach to the conflict over the past year suggests that this moment will not lead to a resolution. Recently, he even reframed the conflict, casting it in religious and messianic terms by renaming it from the "Swords of Iron" to the "Resurrection War." This shift reinforces that his desire is not for peace but for escalation, as he appears to be doubling down on a prolonged conflict and gambling on a potential Trump victory in the 2024 U.S. election. There are numerous indications that in Netanyahu's calculation, such an outcome would grant him greater U.S. backing, allowing him pursuit his quixotic aim to reshape the region in Israel’s favor.

At present, the ball is firmly in Netanyahu’s court. The key question is how Israeli politics will evolve in the coming weeks. His recent tactical wins over Hezbollah gave him some much-needed political breathing room, but Iran’s recent missile attacks and Hezbollah’s continued operations have reintroduced significant pressure. If the opposition to Netanyahu regains momentum and Israelis take to the streets again in protest for a hostage deal, it may force him into a deal. Yet, Netanyahu's political survival ultimately depend on how far he can push the “winning” narrative while keeping his fierce domestic opposition at bay.

One of the most critical factors that could influence Netanyahu’s next move is the fate of the Israeli hostages. It is believed that only Sinwar and a few senior Hamas commanders knew their exact location. With Sinwar’s death, that knowledge may be lost, raising the stakes for Netanyahu. If Netanyahu manages to rescue the hostages without negotiating a ceasefire, he will likely strengthen his political position. On the other hand, if he refuses to negotiate, and the hostages are killed, it could deal a severe blow to his standing and increase public pressure on his government.

The death of Sinwar could also have broader implications for Israel’s northern front, particularly with Hezbollah. Buoyed by the success in Gaza, Netanyahu may attempt to apply a similar military approach in Lebanon, risking further escalation in the region.

Finally, Sinwar’s death raises questions about the future of Hamas’s leadership. Who will step in to lead the group—someone from within Gaza’s military ranks, or the political wing operating outside the enclave? Someone close to Iran, like Sinwar and his predecessor Haniyeh, or someone more critical of Iranian influence, like Khaled Meshal. The successor Hamas chooses will have significant consequences for the organization’s strategy and future.

In the broader picture, Sinwar’s death does not signal the end of the regional conflict; if anything, it likely will perpetuate and potentially intensify it.